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BY JOE CARLSON
jcarlson@nwitimes.com
219.933.3364 | Sunday, May 04, 2008 | (141 comment(s))
Bucking conventional wisdom about Barack Obama's natural advantage in Northwest Indiana, a Times-sponsored poll of likely voters in Lake and Porter counties gives Hillary Clinton a commanding 13-point lead over Obama among region Democrats.
But with just days remaining before Tuesday's primary, 19 percent of the Northwest Indiana Democrats polled by JEM Research, Inc., said they had not yet decided which candidate will get their vote, even though all of them were "very" or "extremely" likely to cast a ballot.
"I was shocked by the (number of) undecided voters this late in the game," said Marie Eisenstein, assistant professor of political science at Indiana University Northwest. "This continues to be the election season where everything seems to change in an instant."
Eisenstein agreed with national observers who say the Indiana primary is yet another critical test for Clinton's campaign. The Hoosier State is one of the last remaining battleground states in the nation before the Democratic Party has its nominating convention in August.
Nationally, Obama holds the edge in the popular vote and party delegates, and Clinton's campaign staffers said early in the campaign that they were working to overcome Obama's natural advantage because of the Chicago media market's influence in Indiana.
Northwest Indiana is the state's second-largest pool of Democratic voters, behind Marion County. Lake County has the state's highest concentration of Democrats, statistics show.
"If you want to be able to win in Indiana, you have to turn out the vote in Northwest Indiana," Eisenstein said. "This is the Democratic stronghold of the state."
The Times/JEM Research poll of Northwest Indiana voters found 46 percent will support Clinton, while 33 percent will support Obama. One percent refused to answer.
The poll of Northwest Indiana Democrats surveyed 384 voters between April 28 and 30. Of those polled, 75 percent were from Lake County, with the rest from Porter County. The study had a plus or minus 5 percentage points margin of error.
Among the 19 percent who reported still being undecided, 29 percent said they were "leaning" toward Clinton, 12 percent were leaning toward Obama, and 55 percent were flatly undecided.
Former President Bill Clinton told supporters in Whiting on Thursday that in other states, voters who remained undecided until the last minute tended to decide in favor of his wife.
The poll painted a more lopsided picture than has been seen in most statewide surveys, which in general have found the candidates competitive but have given Clinton the advantage as the primary approaches.
An average of 11 statewide surveys of Hoosier voters conducted since April 23 finds that Clinton is running a nine-point lead.
Clinton campaign spokesman Jonathan Swain did not declare victory on hearing the results of The Times' poll.
"We've seen a lot of polls in the past week. ... Quite honestly, they've been all over the place," Swain said. "This is a very tight primary and we expect it to be very tight down to the end."
Kevin Griffis, Obama's communications director for Indiana, said in an e-mail to The Times: "We anticipate a very close race, and what we remain focused on is the conversation we're having with Indiana voters about why Senator Obama is the best candidate to turn the page on the failed politics of the past and unite our country to bring true change to Washington."
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Dont buy the hate wrote on May 11, 2008 8:05 PM:
Republicans or Racists. "
John A wrote on May 11, 2008 1:20 PM:
Sville Resident wrote on May 10, 2008 1:00 PM:
blh wrote on May 10, 2008 9:42 AM:
skp wrote on May 10, 2008 2:18 AM:
Love wins every time. wrote on May 9, 2008 5:02 PM:
Or is he talking about Obama's "love" for ordinary Americans who he looks down his snooty, elite nose at and says they
"cling to guns and religion"?
Obama is dividing the country. He can't even bring the Democrat party together! "
DONT VOTE FOR OBAMA wrote on May 9, 2008 12:43 PM:
Pabey is DEAD wrote on May 9, 2008 9:36 AM:
Now he and his little weasley mouthpiece Damian Rico can bend over and kiss their "heinies" goodbye!!! "
democrat wrote on May 9, 2008 6:07 AM:
Let's see---he has never answered any questions on the Tony Rezko fiasco yet-------the Chicago Tribune has put forth questons for him a number of times and he flatly REFUSES----------------------------good candidate???????? "
Don Dodge wrote on May 8, 2008 8:02 PM:
Dave wrote on May 8, 2008 5:19 PM:
Obama 53.3%
Clinton 46.7%
JEM Research Inc. and The Times this note...your poll was off a little! "
nb wrote on May 8, 2008 10:26 AM:
Probably true... wrote on May 8, 2008 9:49 AM:
Cry Babies for Hillary wrote on May 8, 2008 9:23 AM:
bewildered wrote on May 8, 2008 9:14 AM:
clinton supporter from st. john wrote on May 8, 2008 8:46 AM:
to Terry Z wrote on May 8, 2008 8:40 AM:
Phony wrote on May 8, 2008 8:33 AM:
Times wrong wrote on May 8, 2008 8:31 AM:
Terry Z- ex regionite wrote on May 8, 2008 7:12 AM:
I GRADUATED FROM I.U., GOT SMART AND LEFT. NO WONDER, WHEN YOU LISTEN TO 2 MAYORS ARGUE ON CNN AND IMPLY THEY ARE EACH UP TO NO-GOOD. I LEFT 25 YRS AGO. HEY REGION...NOTHING HAS CHANGED! OBAMA MAY NOT HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS, BUT AT MY AGE, I WANT TO GIVE SOMEONE A CHANCE THAT IS NOT FROM THE OLD ESTABLISHMENT...THE CLINTONS' OR THE BUSHS'.TIME FOR CHANGE. "
Valpo wrote on May 7, 2008 10:04 PM:
Don Dodge wrote on May 7, 2008 6:22 PM:
Not Fooled wrote on May 7, 2008 3:18 PM:
To Mary wrote on May 7, 2008 2:14 PM:
clinton backer from st. john wrote on May 7, 2008 1:44 PM:
I Wonder wrote on May 7, 2008 12:55 PM:
Great job, Times! lol "
smitten with words wrote on May 7, 2008 12:19 PM:
To all clueless people wrote on May 7, 2008 12:12 PM:
Mary wrote on May 7, 2008 10:02 AM:
Chris wrote on May 7, 2008 7:58 AM:
Obama takes Lake County! "
Obama bill wrote on May 7, 2008 1:47 AM:
Go Hillary wrote on May 6, 2008 8:00 PM:
Re Obama supporter wrote on May 6, 2008 7:55 PM:
Doofus wrote on May 6, 2008 4:32 PM:
Obama Supporter wrote on May 6, 2008 3:02 PM:
Mark wrote on May 6, 2008 2:47 PM:
yes henny penny wrote on May 6, 2008 2:27 PM:
Obama fought hard to make sure if a baby girl or boy is born alive during an abortion, that that girl or boy is NOT given any sort of medical care. Usually they are put in a broom closet and left to die, and Obama wanted to make sure that was the law and no rogue nurse or doctor could legally provide medical care to the born alive baby.
This is all documented in the "Born Alive Infant Protection Act", the Act that Obama fought so hard to defeat.
Other than that, you are right, he has not done much. So at least he has that accomplishment I mentioned going for him. "
Doofus wrote on May 6, 2008 2:27 PM:
Doofus wrote on May 6, 2008 2:24 PM:
Doofus wrote on May 6, 2008 2:16 PM:
poll what wrote on May 6, 2008 2:15 PM:
to henny penny wrote on May 6, 2008 2:09 PM:
henny penny wrote on May 6, 2008 12:57 PM:
Mark wrote on May 6, 2008 12:14 PM:
Smitten Clinton wrote on May 6, 2008 12:09 PM:
screwed up wrote on May 6, 2008 11:50 AM:
to Obama or Bust wrote on May 6, 2008 10:44 AM:
Doofus wrote on May 6, 2008 10:39 AM:
I am bored with any story that says Hillary has a chance. These chances are media fabrications created to be "fair" to a losing candidate. They do the American public a disservice.
"
dee wrote on May 6, 2008 10:12 AM:
voter wrote on May 6, 2008 9:58 AM:
from Whiting wrote on May 6, 2008 9:55 AM:
Go Barack wrote on May 6, 2008 9:48 AM:
Go Barack wrote on May 6, 2008 9:46 AM:
Homeboy wrote on May 6, 2008 6:32 AM:
Look for a Republican landslide. "
Booth Time Decision wrote on May 6, 2008 4:42 AM:
Joel wrote on May 5, 2008 11:32 PM:
Joel wrote on May 5, 2008 11:27 PM:
Obama or Bust wrote on May 5, 2008 11:25 PM:
VOTE OBAMA 5/6! "
Polls Know Nothing wrote on May 5, 2008 9:04 PM:
KAREN wrote on May 5, 2008 7:31 PM:
It is funny that some of you want to FORGIVE the Clintons sins IN THE HOUSE OF THE PEOPLE BUT WANT TO punish Barack for someone elses SIN.
How many Catholics left their parishes because of the priest molesting their children....NONE! They moved the priest.
BILL DID Monica IN THE WHITE HOUSE but that is OK? SHAME ON YOU INDIANA! "
Bad judgment or bad character wrote on May 5, 2008 10:10 AM:
1. Even though he was a very close friend with reverend Wright, and attended and donated heavily to his church, he never had ANY idea that this guy was a fierce anti-american racist who "didn't reflect his beliefs".
2. Knew what rev. wright was all about and agreed with it, or worse, didn't agree but tolerated it, and raised his kids listening to it, for political purposes.
If it's #1, then what does this say about his judgment capabilities as president? If it's #2, then what does this say about his character as president?
I support Hillary and if this bad apple Obama gets the nomination, I will switch parties and vote for McCain. At least he is reasonable on the issues. "
beth wrote on May 5, 2008 10:01 AM:
br wrote on May 5, 2008 9:59 AM:
Josh Burgess wrote on May 5, 2008 6:53 AM:
Karen wrote on May 5, 2008 2:28 AM:
Can it be that Hillary needs to be president to prevent going to trial in Los Angeles for the biggest fraud case in history?
Research Indiana - America is counting on you to make a sound decision based on facts not fiction.
Why aren't you outraged that Bill Clinton sullied the House of the People with Monica? Why Indiana? "
Marc wrote on May 4, 2008 11:35 PM:
He'll get this one tossed as well.
The US allows a person to sue until they are blue in the face. It doesn't strengthen their case with each successive loss. "
Joanne wrote on May 4, 2008 10:35 PM:
We need someone different running our country. We need a fresh start and we will not get it with the Clintons and their years of baggage. Barack Obama is honest about what this country needs, and he isn't feeding you garbage just to get elected. It's time to end this primary and get behind our Democratic nominee. Obama 08 "
BabeLopez wrote on May 4, 2008 10:33 PM:
Richardk wrote on May 4, 2008 10:28 PM:
dems need Clinton wrote on May 4, 2008 10:22 PM:
Destiny wrote on May 4, 2008 10:11 PM:
She has my vote, my husband, my children, my neighbors, my in-laws, my parents, my friends, my co-workers, my boss, my husband's boss, etc......
GO.......HILLARY!!!!!! "
Chuck wrote on May 4, 2008 10:04 PM:
Oil companies paying gas tax = Lower gas prices because THEY will be paying the taxes so they'll keep the price down.
Lower gas prices w/ no taxes = cash in YOUR pocket.
Lower gas prices w/ no taxes = less cost for truckers.
Less cost for truckers = lower cost for goods = more CASH in YOUR pocket.
Obama dismisses this plan, yet, gives no solution of his own. What's up with that? "
HILLARY ALL THE WAY wrote on May 4, 2008 10:03 PM:
Carpal Tunnel from online polls wrote on May 4, 2008 9:53 PM:
Go Hillary LLLLLOOOOOOLLLLLL!!!!!
"
nice try... wrote on May 4, 2008 9:44 PM:
T.J. wrote on May 4, 2008 9:19 PM:
Someone mentioned that Obama has not visited the Northwest Indiana as much as Clinton. The reason behind this is because we already know him. He is introducing himself to the rest of the state. It's COMMON SENSE! "
Health Insurance wrote on May 4, 2008 9:19 PM:
Mary OBryan wrote on May 4, 2008 9:16 PM:
Old Clinton Supporter wrote on May 4, 2008 9:10 PM:
FacingReality wrote on May 4, 2008 8:54 PM:
To Star wrote on May 4, 2008 8:52 PM:
Carolina Hubert wrote on May 4, 2008 8:43 PM:
It's just a huge issue for us - healthcare. Hillary got it right with her plan to cover EVERY AMERICAN, and thusly, she has won our votes.
"
Trev wrote on May 4, 2008 8:14 PM:
NO OBama wrote on May 4, 2008 8:08 PM:
To Kristin wrote on May 4, 2008 8:01 PM:
enlightened wrote on May 4, 2008 7:52 PM:
Kristin wrote on May 4, 2008 7:49 PM:
Hillary Clinton says whatever she needs to say to get elected. Barack Obama doesn't tell people what they WANT to hear, he tells us what we NEED to hear. He is authentic. Clinton changes her personality, actions, and words to appeal to whatever audience she is speaking to at the moment. Obama's personality and message are consistent. He is honest, decent, and trustworthy. Hillary wants the Presidency because she craves power. Obama wants the Presidency because he wants to help Americans - ALL Americans - take back our government and our country! "
enlightened wrote on May 4, 2008 7:49 PM:
Jack wrote on May 4, 2008 7:29 PM:
EricaLeigh wrote on May 4, 2008 7:28 PM:
As for the gas tax issue, the tax break is just that-a break-and millions of folks could use one about now. Hillary's comprehensive plan for energy independence is detailed and specific, much more so than Obama's.
After watching both of them and looking at their policies, it's really clear to me that she is much more energetic, engaged, and excited about being the leader of the American people, whom she respects.
Hillary's policies are much stronger, and so is she, it seems. While he gets tired and fussy on the campaign trail, Hillary seems happy and full of hope and inspiration--I think Hillary will be the one to unite our country and turn it around in the direction Americans want. "
Senor Veritas wrote on May 4, 2008 7:20 PM:
FORMER Republican voting DEMOCRAT wrote on May 4, 2008 6:34 PM:
HILLARY wrote on May 4, 2008 6:13 PM:
GO HILLARY!!!
HILLARY HAS MY VOTE FOR SURE!!!
I HOPE EVERYONE ELSE SEE IT THE SAME WAY!!!
GO HILLARY-I'LL BE WATCHING THE INDIANA
PRIMARY TUESDAY TO WATCH OBAMA LOSE!!! "
Hillarys gonna win it wrote on May 4, 2008 6:09 PM:
Jim wrote on May 4, 2008 5:47 PM:
Judy wrote on May 4, 2008 5:16 PM:
Do the right thing on Tuesday. "
Jan wrote on May 4, 2008 4:50 PM:
Regardless of her little performance, it didn't move me one bit...I and my family and friends are voting for Obama. "
Tee wrote on May 4, 2008 4:09 PM:
A True American wrote on May 4, 2008 3:57 PM:
Can the Clintons be trusted..." I did not have ...with that woman".
Do you want them in your Whitehouse. The 1st Bush was bad, the 2nd Bush was worse...The 1st Clinton caused problems, I can image what the 2nd will do...We are a democratic government, not a government that promotes family legacies....
THINK BEFORE YOU VOTE TUESDAY!!! "
Obama All the Way wrote on May 4, 2008 3:44 PM:
online polls are rigged wrote on May 4, 2008 3:22 PM:
Katie wrote on May 4, 2008 2:52 PM:
"
HA wrote on May 4, 2008 2:31 PM:
ruth wrote on May 4, 2008 2:09 PM:
ruthye wrote on May 4, 2008 2:04 PM:
Granny wrote on May 4, 2008 2:01 PM:
PA_Voter wrote on May 4, 2008 1:49 PM:
Senator Obama continued relationships with very questionable characters of which only a few had hit the MSM. In PA, he alluded to his relationship with Mr. Ayers as "flimsy" yet he worked with him on a project for 6+ years as well as on a board for 3+ years; Rev. Wright has been intertwined in his family for over 20 years; and, Mr. Rezko, the Syrian-born guy who bought the land next to his house and raised 250K+ for Obama's previous campaigns, and is now on trial for kickbacks/laundering.
So I ask you to just answer the familiar saying "Tell me who your friends are and I'll tell you who you are" before casting your vote on Tuesday. "
VOTE wrote on May 4, 2008 12:40 PM:
Obama Sat in his church for 20 years with Wright as the pastor!? Now, my thinking someone has used poor judgment or is casting smoke screens about what they stand for!
I watched Senator Clinton interviewed in Indianapolis this morning. She presented herself (again) as smart, controlled and confident! She can respond to a question with an answer that makes sense and is inteligible! (unlike her opponent) Obama who can and has stammered through debates repeatedly!
CAST YOUR VOTES INDIANA! "
CLVOTER wrote on May 4, 2008 12:38 PM:
I see a someone who would be able to handle foreign affairs the best. Someone who not only wants to help americans, but someone who knows how to do it. To straigten this country out it will take someone of that nature to get the job done.
CLINTON GETS MY VOTE IN THE PRIMARY AND THE PRESIDENTAL ELECTION!!! "
Kimberly wrote on May 4, 2008 12:33 PM:
WAKE UP PEOPLE wrote on May 4, 2008 12:06 PM:
BTW On the Gas TAx wrote on May 4, 2008 12:04 PM:
On a monthly basis I am paying 350-400 per month in gas for both cars. I'd love to save the 120. Obama is against it, but as a State Senator he voted for it three times on the State level. "
Shelli wrote on May 4, 2008 12:00 PM:
Online Polls wrote on May 4, 2008 11:58 AM:
I agree witht he perosn that watched both programs, as I did as well. What a differnce in command of the issues and willingness to face tough questions. She put herself in an environment that was not 100% hers,a nd came across well. He didn't impress me on Meet the Press, even though Russert seems to be an Obama fan.
I am leaning towards Clinton, becuase I honestly feel that we need a tough perosn in the WHite House. I like obama, but he never gets specific with his answers. McCain will chew him up in the Fall on the straight talk.
I geuess we will see uesday, but there is no way she wins by that much ion Indiana. If she wins, it will be 2 ponts, and same for him. "
Shelli wrote on May 4, 2008 11:56 AM:
Yes to Hillary wrote on May 4, 2008 11:45 AM:
Real Voter wrote on May 4, 2008 11:27 AM:
Jim wrote on May 4, 2008 11:19 AM:
Being a white male my vote should be going to Clinton or even McCain in November, but I am voting for Obama. As someone who voted for Bush in 2000, but Kerry in 2004 a vote for McCain in the general election will be more of the same as that of the Bush admininstration. If you think prices are high now think of 4 more years with the same basic policies. And as far as Hillary's so called "experience" I don't buy it. First lady for 8 years hardly qualifies. The idiot we have in the White House now was a one time governor of Texas.
I am voting for Obama because I firmly believe he is a straight shooter. He will tell the truth and not just what will get him elected. Bush won on scare tactics. Obama will not. "
Margaret wrote on May 4, 2008 11:16 AM:
you do realize wrote on May 4, 2008 11:03 AM:
Say NO to Obama wrote on May 4, 2008 11:01 AM:
Jesse wrote on May 4, 2008 10:44 AM:
Merlin wrote on May 4, 2008 10:40 AM:
I'm sure you know why we're voting in the DEMOCRATIC primary rather than the Republican primary. The policies of the Bush WhiteHouse, the pre-2006 and post 2006 Election Republican congressional enablers have left so many at home and abroad as figuretive and literal roadkills. We've seen those at the margins economically, or just on the wrong side of the moment, be the victims of that road-kill culture of just-shop materialism as the measure of the common wealth. There's an obvious reason why you ARE a Democratic voter this year.
But there's more than what the Republicans have gotten away with over these past eight or more years. There's, also, a negative ethos of ethics that has infected the political process on the Democrat side. Many of the grievances we have against the Republicans were enabled if not fostered by Dems whose own cynicism of "the ends will be the cover of our means" has degraded this culture. Those Dems that made alliances with the interests whose agendas undermined us economically and made the culture more toxic.
We're out to change the mind set rationale of DC, not just seats in DC. "
star wrote on May 4, 2008 10:36 AM:
She got tough questions and she stood her ground and gave very detailed answers. Cotnrasted to Sen. Obama who got softballs and refused to face the people of NC and IN again just like he refused to debate. Not good signs for a leader. "
missed in the polls wrote on May 4, 2008 10:20 AM:
Is this the same.... wrote on May 4, 2008 10:13 AM:
Yeah Right wrote on May 4, 2008 9:42 AM:
Chuck wrote on May 4, 2008 9:05 AM:
yay wrote on May 4, 2008 8:38 AM:
Doesnt add up wrote on May 4, 2008 8:37 AM:
di wrote on May 4, 2008 8:36 AM:
di wrote on May 4, 2008 8:27 AM:
ch wrote on May 4, 2008 8:19 AM:
Leslie wrote on May 4, 2008 8:14 AM:
"
Milan Chung wrote on May 4, 2008 8:08 AM:
PLEASE VOTE FOR HILLARY CLINTON.
SHE IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE with the STRENGTH and EXPERIENCE ON DAY ONE.
HILLARY is a FIGHTER and SHE WILL FIGHT HARD FOR ALL OF US.
HILLARY has the BEST SOLUTIONS for HEALTHCARE, EDUCATION,JOBS..JOBS..JOBS and in BRINGING the TROOPS HOME! SHE WILL TURN THIS COUNTRY AROUND FOR THE BETTER....SO PLEASE MAKE A SMART AND a RIGHT CHOICE...
THANK YOU ALL VERY MUCH.
GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!! "
Carlo wrote on May 4, 2008 7:48 AM:
Hillary it's over.. "
sls wrote on May 4, 2008 7:20 AM:
"
Funny... wrote on May 4, 2008 7:12 AM:
Your Not Bias...NOT wrote on May 4, 2008 6:56 AM:
Benja wrote on May 4, 2008 4:54 AM:
neenee wrote on May 4, 2008 4:29 AM: