After weeks of anticipation, the Department of Agriculture released statistics on crop plantings in the U.S. on June 29.
The report, the first to detail actual plantings rather than planting intentions, surprised traders as it revealed that farmers had actually planted close to 93 million acres of corn, as opposed to the 90.5 million acres that were predicted in The Department of Agriculture's March Prospective Plantings report. These acreage figures are up from 79.4 million acres in 2006.
Because of a wet spring, traders had wondered if farmers would be able to increase plantings as much as predicted and corn prices had been strong throughout the spring as a result. As was expected, farmers primarily sacrificed soybean acreage to increase their corn plantings and the Department of Agriculture's report confirmed this.
The report showed that farmers planted 64.1 million soybean acres, down from 74.9 million acres in 2006 and down from the 67.1 million acres predicted in March. Price movements were swift on the day the report was released. Corn prices plunged as the increased acreage outlook combined with above-average corn conditions combined to allay fears about supply shortages for the 2007 growing year.
Corn prices fell 10 cents per bushel, or about 3 percent on that Friday and fell an additional 11.25 cents on Tuesday after the Department of Agriculture reported that 73 percent of corn is in good to excellent condition, a rating that typically indicates above-average yields.
Conversely, soybean prices rallied on fears that additional acreage cuts could create supply shortages. Soybean prices rallied almost 40 cents per bushel, or almost 5 percent after the report was released. Now that the acreage numbers are known with more certainty, traders will refocus on weather forecasts and the Department of Agriculture's weekly crop condition ratings for the remainder of the summer.
COTTON: The Department of Agriculture's report also pushed cotton prices higher, continuing a rally that started in mid-May. The report showed that farmers had planted just over 11 million acres of cotton this year, down almost one million acres from 2006.
The fall in acreage forced traders to make downward revisions to their ending stocks estimates. Since May 15, cotton prices have rallied by more than 11 cents a pound, or slightly more than 20 percent. This rally came despite record cotton stocks in the U.S.
Many traders believe that the relative price of cotton in the U.S. versus much of the rest of the world had become too cheap and recent reports showing large numbers of cotton exports to foreign countries seemed to confirm this. If these large exports continue, it could force traders to rethink their beliefs that the U.S. is well-supplied for the time being and could create further support for cotton prices.
OIL: Crude oil prices continued to rally this week with prices on the August contract settling above $70 per barrel for the first time this year and reaching intraday highs of more than $72 per barrel on Thursday.
In recent days, crude has been pushed higher by expectations that refineries will be improving their utilization rates for the rest of the summer and requiring more crude oil to refine into gasoline.
Also lending near-term support to crude prices was continued attacks on oil production infrastructure in Nigeria. With Nigeria as the world's fourth-largest crude oil producing nation, continued attacks will continue to lend support should they continue, or until a peaceful resolution can be reached.
Walt Breitinger is vice president of commodities at A.G. Edwards and Sons. He can be reached at (219) 738-6460.
