Every hour of each trading day last week, traders were asked if Hurricane Ike will cause a sharp rise in commodity prices. The answer depends on the path of Ike, the damage, or perceived threat of damage, to several basic commodity groups.

Crude oil prices could rise if Ike stages a direct hit on the oil production areas and if the federal government does not respond by releasing crude from our country's strategic petroleum reserve. Gasoline, heating oil and other products refined from crude in the areas around Houston might explode if that area is targeted by Ike.

That widely publicized expectation caused those petro-products to rally on Thursday even as crude traded lower.

Texas cotton fields could get soaked by Ike, thereby slowing harvest and pushing prices upward while orange juice may be spared as the storm moves far west of the center of orange production.

The macabre thought that housing inventory could be flattened sometimes causes speculation or hedging in lumber and copper, two markets currently suffering from weak demand.

Walt Breitinger is vice president of commodities at Wachovia Securities. He can be reached at (219) 738-6460.