Despite a dearth of any optimistic financial or economic news for which to be grateful, our country can take solace in a bountiful harvest and abundant supply of food, clothing, housing and fuel. Recent fears of shortages, often stemming from the explosion of demand from China's industrial revolution and the concurrent race toward higher prices, have suddenly turned into a recent glut of supply of virtually all commodities in the agricultural and industrial sectors.
Though punishing farmers and other producers with declining prices, the vast majority of consumers and those who manufacture finished products from basic raw materials are blessed with huge supplies that now seem destined to last or even increase.
The USDA's November Supply Demand Report estimated this year's corn harvest at 12.020 billion bushels and soybeans at 2.921 billion bushels. Though not a record production year, the expected carry over seems quite sufficient for the declining demand from our livestock and export business, especially considering the recent rise in the U.S. dollar, which makes exports more difficult.
Demand for red meat has dropped substantially as homemakers and restaurateurs have shied away from expensive cuts of meat and sought cost-efficient alternatives. Pessimism about the global economic outlook has thus pushed prices lower while the weight of steers remains well above the five-year average.
Our domestic crude oil stockpile -- the focus of tight supplies and near-panic demand just a few months ago -- has now risen to 313.5 million barrels, a level which is above last year and nearly 30 million barrels above the five-year average (hence the drop in price from $148 per barrel to below $50 again this past week).
One casualty of the auto and housing glut has been the tumbling price and rising stockpile of copper. Warehouse stocks at the benchmark London Metal Market have recently risen to more than 283,000 metric tons, up from 122,500 in early July when copper traded above $4 per pound. It is now trading below $1.66 per pound.
Financial uncertainties have created demand for gold, however, as many speculators and investors have begun to purchase gold as a safe haven or hedge against the falling stock market and as protection against inflation.
Opinions expressed solely are those of the writer. Walt Breitinger is vice president of commodities at Wachovia Securities. He can be reached at (219) 738-6460.
