One of my friends suggests that 2008 is for economists what 1492 was for cartographers. It's an appealing analogy. The smart money was betting on adventurers seeking a new route to untold riches.
Possibly, in our time, we will learn to live comfortably in the new financial world we have created.
So what should we do now? How should you and I, people who think of themselves as prudent, deal with the financial crisis that is morphing into a significant economic downturn? The Wall Street and Main Street experts tell us to hold tight, don't panic, and don't sell.
That's pretty good advice from people who might have no idea what you should do with whatever money you would get from selling off the big losers in your portfolio. It's also good advice from people who do not want to see the general public selling more stock and driving prices lower.
We were the ones who bought into the idea that the stock market would always be our best bet despite its fluctuations. We wanted to invest for the long-term yet bought financial instruments that can change in value at electronic speed.
A man recently asked me, "If you suddenly came into a whole lot of money, how would you use it?" It's a good question at anytime. My answer was that I would pay off my mortgage first. Then I would put aside funds for the education of my grandchildren.
Basically, it is the same answer I have given every time over the years that I have been asked that same question. First, get debt-free. Second, invest in your family's human capital.
Americans have accepted debt as a way of life. We don't save to consume; we consume and hope that someday (with the help of inflation) we can pay back in depreciated dollars. And you don't have to be more productive to get paid more; all you have to do is insist on a "fair" cost-of-living adjustment.
Today we think about education in terms of increased income. But, as you may have heard, money does not qualify a person to be a good citizen. Knowledge of history, law, literature, grammar, mathematics, the sciences, the arts, diverse cultures n all the components of a liberal education n are necessary for an adult to be a contributing member of society. It is a liberal education because such learning frees the recipient to think clearly and thus evaluate alternatives.
And, if I had any money left over, I'd give it to organizations that improve my community. In these tough times, many people will reduce their philanthropic donations. Now is not the time to do that. Now is the time to remember the museums, public broadcasting and homeless shelters.
Normally, at Thanksgiving and Christmas we spend excessive amounts on gifts and decorations. Starting now, if we must cut back, let's do so intelligently. Let's think about what is best for us and our community in the long-term. The rewards will be there in a joyous new year.
Opinions expressed solely are those of the writer. Morton Marcus is an economist, author and speaker formerly at the Kelley School of Business, Indiana University. He can be reached at mortonjmarcus@yahoo.com.
