CHICAGO | Panelists at a steel conference last week agreed the popular Cash for Clunkers gave a short-term boost to the automobile and steel industries.
But some analysts believe the long-term outlook for the industry -- and the flat-rolled steel products supporting it -- can be considered rosy as well.
AK Steel CEO James Wainscott said the uptick in U.S. manufacturing activity is translating into a modest increase in production for the auto steel business.
Wainscott, who spoke at the Third North American Steel Conference at the Fairmont Hotel, said the increases are linked to small economic improvement and service centers having worked down high inventory levels. He said he anticipated increased demand for auto steels through the end of the year.
Paul Scott, managing consultant of CRU's Steel Business Unit, said the increase in demand for flat-rolled products has come exclusively from the automotive sector, which is not being displayed in a majority of others. The products include hot-rolled sheet -- which can be manufactured into vehicle frame components, brake components and compressor shells -- cold-rolled sheet and zinc-coated sheet.
"Mills have responded by increasing output and relighting blast furnaces but supply has struggled to keep pace with demand," Scott said. "We've seen an extension in lead times and increases in (domestic) prices." As a result, Scott said steel sheet prices in the Midwest will be the highest in the world during the fourth quarter and import arrivals will increase sharply in the first quarter of next year.
Scott said consumption of flat-rolled products will be flat in the first quarter of 2010 and show limited growth in the rest of the year. Dramatic improvement in the sector isn't projected until 2011, he added.
Auto research firm IRN Inc. President Kim Korth said the Cash for Clunkers program, which helped move about 691,000 vehicles from dealer lots, showed there was a significant amount of demand for vehicles. She also said during the two-month period of the program, 70 percent of new vehicles bought weren't Cash for Clunkers transactions.
Signs the domestic automobile market may be returning is because of small growth in consumer confidence data and signs the housing inventory may begin declining and new home sales can go in the opposite direction, said Korth, of Grand Rapids, Mich.-based IRN.
Korth is also bullish about the industry's long-term outlook for the auto industry, which he said is bright if the population continues to grow. She estimated about 11.2 million vehicles will be produced next year in the United States, while many analysts aren't predicting more than 10.5 million vehicles.
Korth estimated there would be about 31 million new drivers added to roadways over the next 10 years.
"The industry becomes profitable much quicker than people are anticipating," Korth said.
Barriers still facing the industry are on meeting tighter fuel-efficiency standards and worries that the government and United Auto Workers having stakes in Chrysler and General Motors may mean poor strategic decisions in the companies, she said.
David Andrea, vice president of industry for the Original Equipment Suppliers Association, said within the last 24 months, the government has made nearly $116 billion in investment in the automotive industry. The federal government's presence is apparent in the industry, but he says it's better that officials got involved when they did to prevent a collapse. OESA is a Troy, Mich.-based trade organization representing about 400 automotive industry suppliers.
The cascade of more than 47 automobile suppliers filing for bankruptcy has led other companies to reduce their cost structures and plan to make money while bringing in less revenue.
"We will be a more profitable sector coming back," Andrea said.
CRU, a London-based research and consulting firm focused on business sectors including mining and metals, sponsored the three-day steel conference Monday through Wednesday.
