For a long time, it looked like Willem Dafoe was the safest bet to win his first Oscar. He was amazing in "The Florida Project" for his first nomination in 17 years and third overall. But then "Three Billboards" came along, and Sam Rockwell won the Screen Actors Guild award for Supporting Actor. He also won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award for his racist cop in Ebbing, Missouri. The Supporting Actor winner at the SAGs repeats 61 percent of the time, historically, at the Oscars. So there's precedent in Rockwell's favor, but Dafoe could get votes from people wanting to see him finally win more than 30 years after his first nomination for "Platoon."