Time was, the indictment of a political insider like Robert Cantrell seven weeks before a primary election could have sent unmistakable shock waves through the hearts of many Lake County politicians.
But last week, opinions among political figures were, at best, mixed as to what effect Cantrell's long-awaited indictment would have in the May 8 primary and beyond.
As Cantrell's attorney prepared to turn his client over to U.S. marshals this morning for arrest, the conventional wisdom among observers was that the indictment would hurt Cantrell's allies, particularly East Chicago Mayor George Pabey and Lake County Clerk Tom Philpot. Neither returned calls for comment.
Cantrell's defense attorney, Kevin Milner, predicted the indictment would have little affect on anything. He said it lacked substance and few people would believe its allegations.
Those who did see the indictment having an immediate effect said Pabey -- who is facing four primary challengers in May -- would suffer the greatest harm if the charges detract from Cantrell's political activities.
"Cantrell not being the general manager for Pabey on the campaign will have a major negative impact," said one longtime Lake County observer, whom The Times chose not to identify.
Two political insiders told the newspaper that Cantrell personally has told them he planned to take a job in Pabey's administration shortly after the primary election in exchange for his help on the campaign trail.
Would that job prospect be affected? East Chicago Human Resources Director Fred Vasquez said he was aware of no such plans.
"That's the first I've even heard of it. I don't even have a resume on him," Vasquez said.
Philpot is widely rumored to be planning a run for Lake County commissioner in 2008 to fill the seat being vacated by Fran DuPey.
Philpot and Cantrell's political alliance is well known in political circles and acknowledged by Cantrell in interviews. But DuPey wondered whether Philpot would even need Cantrell on his side in 2008.
"Philpot's a big boy, he's run in enough campaigns. He should be able to run one on his own," said Dupey, who lost to Philpot in a 1999 primary battle for mayor of Hammond.
Younger elected officials in Lake County, such as Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. and North Township Trustee Frank Mrvan, questioned whether Cantrell's indictment would have any immediate or future impact. Both have downplayed any role Cantrell says he played in their past elections.
Mrvan said he had not seen Cantrell at any political fundraisers or functions in the past five months.
"After he retired (from his job as a North Township office manager) he kind of fell off the political scene," Mrvan said. "There were a lot of people mentioning that."
Lake County Surveyor George Van Til said he would be happy if Cantrell's indictment hindered the behind-the-scenes politicking, because elections should be determined by the public.
"The whole issue of unelected power brokers is really problematic, whether it's Karl Rove or Bobby Cantrell," Van Til said. "If you need the services of a power broker, that puts the power broker and you in an interesting position."
