SCHERERVILLE | The good news for Northwest Indiana's economy is that the bad news isn't as bad as it used to be, a local economist told area business representatives Friday.
"Manufacturing has declined over the last three decades, but since 2004, it hasn't fallen," said Don Coffin, associate professor of economics at Indiana University Northwest. "Steel employment hasn't declined in three years."
Coffin was a member of university economists at the annual Business Outlook Panel of Indiana University's Kelley School program at Teibel's Restaurant.
The bad news is that the Northwest Indiana area has been and will remain a region of slow growth in employment, income and population, he said. Its average annual income lags behind other parts of the state and nation with most of its job growth in low paying, service industries.
Currently, there are 38,000 manufacturing jobs in the region, and 18,000 jobs in primary metals -- numbers expected to remain steady, he said. Jobs in both sectors, along with construction jobs, pay more than the area's $38,000 average annual income from employment.
Construction jobs have been relatively strong in Northwest Indiana for the past three years, but the numbers could slide in 2008, if new housing starts continue to fall, he said.
"There are real downside risks," Coffin said.
Local sectors experiencing job growth include health care, where there has been 2.6 percent growth annually for the past 20 years. In 2008, about 900 new jobs are expected to be added to the current 36,000 in the sector, Coffin said.
Food and accommodations employment should add 300 to 400 jobs next year. However, most of the jobs are part-time and low-paying, with workers in the sector earning an average of $13,000 annually.
Retail jobs, the sector that is the area's largest source of employment, also are lower-paying, averaging $22,000 annually, with many of them part-time workers.
Opportunities for employment in the financial services area are shrinking in Northwest Indiana as they have nationwide through consolidation of financial institutions. In the past 10 years, the region has lost 1,400 jobs in the sector, said Coffin, adding he expects to the trend to continue.
"Northwest Indiana has been a slow growth region," he said. "... Next year we'll see more of the same."
