Breaking down the Horizon League
Teams listed in alphabetical order
BUTLER
Why the Bulldogs can win the tournament: The 14th-ranked Bulldogs have the league's best backcourt (Mike Green and A.J. Graves), post player (Matt Howard) and defense (league-low 59.0 ppg). Oh, and they won't have to leave the confines of their home court, where they're 12-1.
Why they won't: Brad Stevens' bunch is undersized and overly reliant on the 3, which is why the Bulldogs play plenty of close games. Wright State and Cleveland State beat Butler; Valparaiso, UIC, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee came close.
CLEVELAND STATE
Why the Vikings can win the tournament: The Vikings have as much depth and athleticism as any league foe and two Player of the Year candidates in Cedric Jackson (14.2 ppg, 4.9 apg, 4.9 rpg) and J'Nathan Bullock (14.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg). They're also one of only two Horizon teams (Wright State being the other) to beat Butler.
Why they won't: After sprinting to a 7-0 start in league play, Cleveland State lost five straight. The reason? The Vikings went on the road for four straight. Winning at least two (and likely three) road games in the tournament might be asking too much of Gary Waters' squad, which is also prone to shooting slumps.
DETROIT
Why the Titans can win the tournament: It's hard to find nice things to say about a team that won three league games and at one point lost 13 in a row. So we'll go with this: The Titans notched back-to-back wins against UIC and Loyola last month.
Why they won't: The Titans were having trouble scoring (league-low 60.8 ppg) and winning on the road (1-12), even before they lost Jon Goode, the league's leading scorer, to a season-ending knee injury earlier this month.
LOYOLA
Why the Ramblers can win the tournament: Their record might not show it, but the Ramblers, as the Crusaders can attest, are no slouches. They beat Cleveland State and twice took Wright State to the wire.
Why they won't: The Ramblers, who take after their shoot-first point guard J.R. Blount (14.8 ppg), don't like to share. They are last in the league in assists, assist-to-turnover ratio and 3-point field goal percentage and ninth in scoring.
UIC
Why the Flames can win the tournament: Merrillville's Josh Mayo (17.8 ppg, league-leading 49.7 3-point percentage) can keep the Flames in any game with his prolific 3-point shooting, and Lake Central's Scott VanderMeer (league-leading 7.3 rpg, league-leading 2.6 bpg) doesn't back down from anyone in the post.
Why they won't: On paper, the Flames have only two glaring flaws. UIC beat the teams it was supposed to but was 1-5 against Butler, Wright State and Cleveland State. An ugly road record is another strike against the Flames' NCAA tournament hopes.
VALPARAISO
Why the Crusaders can win the tournament: After a late-season lag, the Crusaders appear to be peaking at the right time. VU beat Wright State and nearly knocked off Butler, proving it can play with anyone in the league.
Why they won't: Who's to think the Crusaders are capable of reeling off four straight league wins when they haven't done as much all season? The second time around, league opponents figured out VU's weakness and exploited it with smaller, quicker lineups.
WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY
Why the Phoenix can win the tournament: The Phoenix, who play a physical brand of basketball, can beat you from the floor (league-leading 46.2 field goal percentage) or foul line (league-leading 74.5 free throw percentage).
Why they won't: Inconsistent freshman point guard Rahmon Fletcher (3.0 assists per game, 3.1 turnovers per game) would be more than enough cause for concern. But the Phoenix are also slumping and have one road win in their last 10 tries.
WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE
Why the Panthers can win the tournament: What coach has done more with less than Rob Jeter, who lost five players this season but still finished with a respectable record? Here's betting Jeter has his team ready to play come tournament time.
Why they won't: Even good coaching has its limits, and there's only so much Jeter can do for his shorthanded squad. Without Torre Johnson (the league's leading scorer and rebounder when he was booted from the team), the Panthers have become a poor-shooting, perimeter-oriented team.
WRIGHT STATE
Why the Raiders can win the tournament: Butler has six league losses over the past two years, counting the 2007 tournament title game. Three of those losses have come to Wright State. The Raiders were also arguably the league's hottest team during the season's second half, winning a school-record 11 straight games.
Why they won't: Remarkably, the Raiders have won six one-point games, which is a testament to their ability to finish. But can they keep it up? The way Wright State has been winning doesn't leave much margin for error.
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Why the Penguins can win the tournament: Byron Davis, for all his showboating antics, is a pure perimeter scorer. Davis is the league's fourth-leading scorer and has been playing his best basketball of late.
Why they won't: They don't defend. They don't rebound. They don't shoot free throws. They don't take care of the ball. And they don't win on the road. Think the Penguins' tournament stay will last long?
-- By David Robb
