You want the bad news or the r-e-a-l-l-y bad news first?

Chicago-based Jim Callis, executive editor of Baseball America, believes the Cubs and White Sox will be more than decent this season but doubts either will win their respective divisions.

He picks the Cubs to finish third in the NL Central behind St. Louis and "sleeper" Cincinnati. In the AL Central, he likes Minnesota's little piranhas to chew up the Sox.

"It seems with the White Sox that every time I think they're gonna have a good team, they have a bad team and vice versa," Callis said. "I can never figure them out. The Cubs ... I didn't like any of the moves they made last offseason. So I wasn't surprised their team fell a little flat."

Baseball America may not be the game's bible, but it's one of the books of that bible. Callis and his able staff deal in trends and facts, not vendettas. He suggests we keep a close eye on the South Siders Alex Rios (.247 batting average) and pitcher Jake Peavy while up north, Valparaiso High School graduate Jeff Samardzija (1-3, 7.53 ERA) is one of many question marks.

"For the Cubs, it would be nice if (Kosuke) Fukudome ever played up to what they thought he could do. That would be a huge boost for them because their outfield is still kinda muddled," Callis said. "And I think (Alfonso) Soriano is starting to decline a little bit. He's vastly overpaid and is never gonna turn it around.

"The White Sox gave Rios the big contract after back-to-back All-Star seasons in Toronto and he really hasn't played as well since -- and he's making a ton of money."

Physically, Samardzija is an imposing figure. But his stats last season, 21 strikeouts and 15 walks in only 34 2/3 innings, carried more nibble than bite.

And, dude, seven home runs allowed?

"Yeah, they'd like a lot better return on their investment," Callis said. "But I also think he hasn't shown enough for them to count on him to play a major role at the start of the season until he shows that he can.

"I've always thought he'd be better suited to be a reliever. He's never had huge strikeout numbers to go with the velocity on his fastball. His secondary pitches, the slider and splitter, aren't consistently effective."

Cubs general manager Jim Hendry and Colts president Bill Polian are good friends. Polian liked Samardzija a lot and being an all-American receiver at Notre Dame probably helped Jeff negotiate a lucrative baseball contract.

"He was a good prospect but I always thought (the Cubs) overpaid him," Callis said. "I didn't think he was gonna be a first-round pick in the NFL, and I think they paid him as if he was gonna be.

"But if you go back and look at that draft, and the receivers who came out as underclassmen, he would've been more of a second- or third-round pick."

Callis believes the Cubs and Sox can contend for division titles but doesn't see them getting to the World Series.

So, live for that nugget and go shovel your driveway.

This column solely represents the writer's opinion. Reach him at al.hamnik@nwi.com.