NFL INSIDER: Get ready for a wacky Week 17

LAS VEGAS | The NFL does wacky things to a common-sense betting man in Week 17. Happens every year.

Teams that should be favored are suddenly turned into underdogs, even at home, because of the likelihood they'll rest their superstars for the playoffs. And then you have teams that absolutely, positively must win to move on -- and they play either out of their heads or fold under the pressure. It's often a 50-50 split.

Picking games in Week 17 is even harder than in Week 1, because you have a season's worth of assumptions and tendencies that often have to get thrown out the window.

Of the teams that need to win to get in this week, I like the Bengals to upset the Ravens; the Broncos to beat back their former quarterback Kyle Orton and the Chiefs; the Raiders, who still need a lot of help, over the oh-so-frequently-disappointing Chargers, and the Cowboys to upset the Giants on the road.

There are plenty of great story lines this week, which should make for a great start to 2012 -- even if the best you can hope for is going 8-8 in your picks.

BEARS (7-8) at Minnesota (3-12)

Noon Sunday, Fox. Vikings -1 (41)

The skinny: It doesn't get much more meaningless than this, though the Bears would sure love to finish at .500 after losing five straight in one of the most disappointing finishes to a season in team history. We'll pick them one more time for the sweet souvenir.

MattE's pick: Bears 20, Vikings 17.

COLTS (2-13) at Jacksonville (4-11)

Noon Sunday. Jaguars -4 (37)

The skinny: Don't look now, but the Colts are red-hot! They botched their shot at the guaranteed No. 1 draft pick next year by upsetting Houston last week. Believe it or not, I think they'll botch it even further with a ridiculous third consecutive win after starting 0-13.

MattE's pick: Colts 23, Jaguars 17.

N.Y. Jets (8-7) at Miami (5-10)

Noon Sunday, CBS. Dolphins -2.5 (41)

The skinny: The Dolphins have been tearing up point spreads the last two and a half months, going 8-1 against the spread. But the Jets handled them easily right before they got hot, and they'll do it again. They need a win, plus help from three other teams in order to make the playoffs, though.

MattE's pick: Jets 24, Dolphins 16.

Buffalo (6-9) at New England (12-3)

Noon Sunday. Patriots -11 (51)

The skinny: The Patriots need a win to lock up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, or losses from both Pittsburgh and Baltimore -- both of which have winnable games. So Tom Brady will just make it easy, rout the Bills and not bother worrying about any help.

MattE's pick: Patriots 34, Bills 16.

Detroit (10-5) at Green Bay (14-1)

Noon Sunday. Lions -3.5 (45.5)

The skinny: The Packers have locked up home-field advantage in the playoffs, and the Lions have locked up a wild-card spot. So both teams, in theory, can rest their stars. But the Pack sure would like 15-1 more than 14-2, and the Lions haven't won in Green Bay since "The Cosby Show" was still on the air. It's odd to see them the underdog, but they'll take care of business at Lambeau.

MattE's pick: Packers 27, Lions 23.

Tennessee (8-7) at Houston (10-5)

Noon Sunday. Titans -3 (40)

The skinny: The Titans aren't out of it, but they need a win and plenty of help to play after New Year's Day. The Texans have the No. 3 seed in the AFC locked up, so they'll be careful with their stars, and the Titans can take advantage.

MattE's pick: Titans 24, Texans 20.

San Francisco (12-3) at St. Louis (2-13)

Noon Sunday. 49ers -10.5 (35.5)

The skinny: The Niners are battling the Saints for the NFC's non-Packers first-round bye, so they're playing for an extra week off. The Rams are playing for a chance at the No. 1 draft pick with a loss.

MattE's pick: 49ers 23, Rams 10.

Carolina (6-9) at New Orleans (12-3)

Noon Sunday. Saints -8 (55)

The skinny: In an absolutely crazy stat, the Panthers have won nine consecutive games against the spread in road games against the Saints. And guess what? They'll cover again but not win.

MattE's pick: Saints 34, Panthers 28.

Washington (5-10) at Philadelphia (7-8)

Noon Sunday. Eagles -9 (46)

The skinny: The Eagles putzed around early in the year, and it cost them. They'll skip the playoffs despite being labeled "The Dream Team" before the season started, but finishing with a fourth consecutive win is in easy grasp.

MattE's pick: Eagles 31, Redskins 13.

Kansas City (6-9) at Denver (8-7)

3:15 p.m. Sunday, CBS. Broncos -3 (37)

The skinny: The beauty of this game lies in Orton's motivation. The new Chiefs QB gets a chance to beat his old teammates and knock them from the playoffs. But Tim Tebow saves all, and the Broncos? They got this.

MattE's pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 10.

Tampa Bay (4-11) at Atlanta (9-6)

3:15 p.m. Sunday. Falcons -11.5 (46.5)

The skinny: This is a much different situation than these teams' first meeting this year, which Tampa won at home. But mired in the midst of a nine-game losing skid, the Bucs have been giving up 34 points a game the last two months. At home, the Falcons should roll.

MattE's pick: Falcons 34, Bucs 10.

Baltimore (11-4) at Cincinnati (9-6)

3:15 p.m. Sunday. Ravens -2.5 (38)

The skinny: It's a win-and-in situation for the Bengals. But unfortunately, they have to play a Ravens team that can win the AFC North and get a first-round bye with a win -- no easy task. The Ravens have struggled on the road, though, and the Bengals should have the guns to pull off a nice home upset to make the playoffs.

MattE's pick: Bengals 23, Ravens 20.

Pittsburgh (11-4) at Cleveland (4-11)

3:15 p.m. Sunday. Steelers -7 (36)

The skinny: The Steelers are in, but a win and a Baltimore loss will get them the AFC North title and a first-round bye -- and a Patriots loss thrown in could get them home-field advantage. The Steelers were just fine last week without Ben Roethlisberger, thanks to their defense pitching a shutout, and should be fine against the lowly Browns, too.

MattE's pick: Steelers 27, Browns 10.

San Diego (7-8) at Oakland (8-7)

3:15 p.m. Sunday. Raiders -3 (49)

The skinny: The Raiders can make the playoffs with a win and a little help from their friends. With the memory of an upset road win against the Chargers last month still fresh, confidence is high.

MattE's pick: Raiders 27, Chargers 20.

Seattle (7-8) at Arizona (7-8)

3:15 p.m. Sunday. Cardinals -3 (41)

The skinny: No playoff hopes on the line here -- just a little run-of-the-mill pride that goes along with being a .500 football team. And both of these teams have gotten hot -- just too little, too late. The Seahawks have been a little warmer, though, and will get the road upset.

MattE's pick: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 20.

Dallas (8-7) at N.Y. Giants (8-7)

7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC. Giants -3 (46)

The skinny: Get ready for another shootout like three weeks ago -- only this time there's even more on the line. The Giants won late, 37-34, in Dallas last time -- making this one ultimately worth all the playoff marbles. The Giants have the edge at home, but the Cowboys have to be primed for an upset to play on in January.

MattE's pick: Cowboys 34, Giants 30.

2011 record

Last week: 12-4 straight up, 9-7 against the spread. Overall: 157-83 (.654) straight up, 135-105 (.563) against the spread.

Matt Erickson is an award-winning journalist whose NFL picks have appeared in The Times for nine seasons. He also covers mixed martial arts for The Times and Heavy.com.