There are a few great games this week, but everyone's talking about the one that is supposed to be an epic blowout.
The Broncos set the modern NFL record by opening as a 28-point favorite at home against the Jaguars. It seems insane, but it's almost surprising it wasn't higher.
The Jaguars haven't covered a spread yet this season and have put up single-digit points in three of their five games. They're averaging 10 points. The Broncos have covered the over in all five of their games – by a landslide. This week, that total is 53. Considering Denver has put up 50-plus in back-to-back games, over that total seems like a lock, too. They're averaging 46 points a game, which is absolutely unheard of.
Most of all, they're playing with crazy amounts of confidence offensively, and the Jags are playing with virtually none. It doesn't seem like a trap at all.
But don't let that game overshadow the competitive ones. I think the Saints continue to get it done on the road at New England after the Patriots put up a paltry six points at Cincinnati last week. The Packers will do their work through the air against the Ravens on the road. The Chiefs excel at home when they're big favorites, which doesn't bode well for the Raiders. And watch out for the Cowboys on Sunday night, playing with motivation at home after losing 51-48 to the Broncos.
Green Bay (2-2) -3 (48) at Baltimore (3-2)
MattE's pick: Packers 27, Ravens 20
Detroit (3-2) -2.5 (45.5) at Cleveland (3-2)
MattE's pick: Lions 24, Browns 20
Carolina (1-3) +2.5 (44) at Minnesota (1-3)
MattE's pick: Vikings 28, Panthers 18
Cincinnati (3-2) -7 (41.5) at Buffalo (2-3)
MattE's pick: Bengals 27, Bills 17
Oakland (2-3) +8.5 (40.5) at Kansas City (5-0)
MattE's pick: Chiefs 26, Raiders 13
St. Louis (2-3) +7.5 (43) at Houston (2-3)
MattE's pick: Texans 26, Rams 20
Pittsburgh (0-4) +2.5 (41) at N.J. Jets (3-2)
MattE's pick: Jets 23, Steelers 20
Philadelphia (2-3) -1.5 (46.5) at Tampa Bay (0-4)
MattE's pick: Eagles 27, Bucs 24
Jacksonville (0-5) +27.5 (54) at Denver (5-0)
MattE's pick: Broncos 48, Jaguars 13
Tennessee (3-2) +13.5 (40.5) at Seattle (4-1)
MattE's pick: Seahawks 31, Titans 13
New Orleans (5-0) +2.5 (50) at New England (4-1)
MattE's pick: Saints 28, Patriots 24
Arizona (3-2) +11 (41.5) at San Francisco (3-2)
MattE's pick: 49ers 26, Cardinals 10
Washington (1-3) +5.5 (53.5) at Dallas (2-3)
MattE's pick: Cowboys 34, Redskins 20
COLTS (4-1) -1.5 (50) at San Diego (2-3)
MattE's pick: Colts 31, Chargers 27
Last week: 9-5 straight up, 7-7 against the spread. Season: 47-29 (.618) straight up, 39-33-4 (.542) against the spread