The surest thing going when predicting Oscar categories is finding out who the Directors Guild of America gave its prize to for Feature Film, and then picking that person to win the Academy Award. The DGA winner repeats an astounding 87 percent of the time, including 13 of the past 14 years. That looks very good for Guillermo del Toro for "The Shape of Water," which led the pack this year with 13 total nominations. Any competition for him might come from Christopher Nolan for "Dunkirk." Absent "The Shape of Water," this would have been a highly competitive year, including Greta Gerwig ("Lady Bird") trying to become just the second woman to win a directing Oscar, and Jordan Peele ("Get Out") trying to become the first African-American directing winner.